Wednesday, October 12, 2011

NHL Preview, Part 2: Western Conference

As promised, here is my Western Conference preview:

1.       Detroit Red Wings

What I like: The power play. Three guys scored 10 or more PPG last year, and you have to assume that Datsyuk would have done so too had he not missed a quarter of the season. They ranked top 5 in the league, and given that they were also top 10 in penalties drawn, the opportunities will be there.
What I don’t like: Depth on D. Take Lidstrom out of the lineup and things start to get ugly pretty quick. Kronwall isn’t a top guy yet and Brad Stuart isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut. Add a non-descript bottom 3, and it could be problematic as the season progresses.
Endgame player: Lidstrom. Still a perennial Norris finalist on the other side of 40, his vision and passing is still unparalleled. Get him the puck late and he’ll help turn it into a goal.
Prediction: A whole year of Datsyuk and a bounce-back year from Howard pulls them ahead of Vancouver for 1st in the West.


2.       Vancouver Canucks

What I like: The top guys. The Sedin twins and Kesler are the most lethal trio in the league, and the contrast of the twins’ finesse and Kesler’s grit make Vancouver tough to deal with when they’re all on the ice together. Even when they’re not, they make their linemates better, to the tune of 26 goals for Burrows.
What I don’t like: Luongo’s mental health. Lu has never been the most stable of individuals in big games, and you have to believe that losing last year’s Finals isn’t going to help him in that regard. While he’ll never be mentioned as an all-time big game goalie, he needs to at least stop being a hindrance for the Canucks to think about hoisting the Cup.
Endgame player: Kesler. A force during the Olympics, he had his second coming-out party during the playoffs, where he combined 19 points with nearly 80 hits. A real difference-maker and possibly the most clutch player on the team.
Prediction: Sheer star power allows the ‘Nucks to waltz through an otherwise putrid division.


3.       LA Kings

What I like: The goalies. One of the few situations in the league where two heads might actually be better than one. While Quick is the better of the two, Bernier could start for a lot of teams. LA has the luxury of using Bernier to keep Quick healthy and rested, which can only help them in the playoffs.
What I don’t like: The second scorers. LA was exposed in last year’s playoffs as a team with only one truly elite scorer when Kopitar went down late in the year. Mike Richards could be the one to step up, but he’s more effective when he doesn’t have to shoulder the scoring load; could the answer be Dustin Penner?
Endgame player: Richards. Richards is the best two-way forward in the league, and makes a difference in all three phases of the game. His leadership will be invaluable as the Kings try to go deeper into the playoffs.
Prediction: The Pacific goes down to the wire, but the Kings finally unseat the Sharks for the division crown.

   
4.       San Jose Sharks

What I like: The centers. Thornton is a world-class playmaker who centers one of the best top lines in the league. Logan Couture looked like the real deal last year, and should improve on what were stellar rookie numbers. Handzus is a solid role player who should improve the third line, and Desjardins showed promise in the season opener. Fantastic depth.
What I don’t like: The trade. While Brent Burns was a great pickup (and deserved a better chance to win than he was getting in Minnesota), the Sharks gave up over 100 points between Heatley and Setoguci. Will the enigmatic (and somewhat injury-prone) Martin Havlat find himself in San Jose?
Endgame player: Patrick Marleau. Marleau is a force to be reckoned with at the end of the game, as nearly a quarter of his goals last season were GWGs. Combine that with the potential for 40 PPP, and he’s the engine that makes the Shark offense go.
Prediction: The Sharks score enough to win until Niemi is back in game shape, en route to another 95+ point season.


5.       Chicago Blackhawks

What I like: The top PP unit. Pick 5 of these 6: Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp, Keith, Seabrook. Only Hossa scored fewer than 20 PPP, and he was only one short. When they’re on, they’re nearly unparalleled in their ability to make the opposition pay for lapses on defense.
What I don’t like: The penalty kill. The Blackhawks suffered when a man down last season, killing off fewer than 80% of penalties. This is odd considering the level of talent they are able to throw out there, but nevertheless an area that could use some serious improvement.
Endgame player: Toews. The Hawks’ captain has a knack for showing up when the team needs him the most, leading the team with 8 GWG. Though Kane scored the Cup winner two seasons ago, it is Toews who they turn to with time winding down.
Prediction: The chemistry issues and inconsistency of a season ago are mostly gone, and Crawford posts another solid season in net, keeping the Hawks comfortably in the playoffs.


6.       Anaheim Ducks

What I like: The top line. Perry, Getzlaf, and Ryan are the total package. They’re gritty, they can score, and they play tons of minutes. Their GVT last year ranked them as the 2nd best top line in the league, only behind Vancouver. As they go, so go the Ducks.
What I don’t like: The depth. The second line isn’t awful, boasting Selanne and Koivu, but this team goes downhill FAST. The same GVT rankings that had the Ducks’ top line at second best placed the rest of the team below replacement level. That is awful, and I’m shocked that the Ducks didn’t do more to shore it up in the offseason.
Endgame player: Selanne. The Finnish Flash is the elder statesman on the roster, and enjoyed a career resurgence last season. He’s gonna need to do it again for the Ducks to not be scrapping for a playoff spot at the end.
Prediction: The top line scores and Hiller is stellar in goal, but the Ducks can’t avoid a low seed and a tough first-round draw.


7.       Columbus Blue Jackets

What I like: The additions. Columbus has been the Rick Nash show for way too long. Management finally wised up in the offseason, bringing in an explosive center for Nash in Jeff Carter, and rounding out the top line with the ageless Vinny Prospal. This takes the burden off second-line guys like Vermette and Umberger, and makes the Jackets a much deeper and better team.
What I don’t like: The goaltending. Steve Mason just doesn’t do it for me. He had a fantastic rookie season, but hasn’t posted a GAA under 3.00 in the two years since.  Compounding that with letting the relatively effective Garon go to Tampa in favor of Curtis Sanford, who hasn’t been in the league the last two years, doesn’t make much sense.
Endgame player: Nash. Regardless of who is around him, this is Nash’s show. He’s a highlight-reel guy who is unstoppable when he decides that he’s going to score. He’ll only get better with better teammates.
Prediction: The offense is downright potent, and Mason is solid enough to put the Jackets in the playoffs for the second time in their history.


8.       St. Louis Blues

What I like: The young defense. Even after letting Erik Johnson go in a trade last season, the Blues boast one of the best collections of young blueliners in the league. Shattenkirk and Pietrangelo both topped 40 points in their rookie seasons, and should blossom into high-end top 4 defensemen sooner rather than later.
What I don’t like: Chances allowed. The Blues allowed the second fewest shots in the league last season, behind the trap-happy Devils. Unfortunately, they allowed goals on 10% of their shots, in the mix with teams like Colorado, Columbus, and Edmonton. The Blues have a better goalie than any of those teams, but need to keep teams from getting quality chances.
Endgame player: Jason Arnott. I watched a lot of Caps games last year, and he was their best player by the end of the season. He’s still a great passer and has fantastic vision on the ice. A phenomenal pickup.
Prediction: The offense stays strong, the defense does a better job of keeping opposing shooters out of Halak’s lap, and the Blues end up back in the postseason.


9.       Nashville Predators

What I like: The goaltending. I don’t know how they do it. It’s like they have a goaltending assembly line in Nashville. Dunham, Vokoun, Mason, Ellis, and now Rinne. Rinne might be the best of the set, but even he has to look over his shoulder at Anders Lindback. As usual, it’s gonna be hard to score on Nashville.
What I don’t like: The offense. Problem is, it’s going to be equally hard for Nashville to score. There isn’t a thirty-goal guy on the roster right now, at least not yet. There are some intriguing young guys, but it’s hard to tell if any of them will take that next step.
Endgame guy: Shea Weber. That slap shot is a force to be reckoned with, and for a team that is going to struggle to generate offense, it is essential that the puck be on Weber’s stick at the end of games.
Prediction: Rinne is stellar, but he can’t do it all on his own, and the offense lets the Preds down.


10.   Minnesota Wild

What I like: The philosophy. The Wild finally realized that barely breaking 200 goals just wasn’t going to do it; it put WAY too much pressure on Backstrom to be perfect. So the Wild went out and made the splashiest trade of the offseason, picking up Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi. Now, their top line is intimidating, with Koivu having serious weapons in Heatley and Bouchard.
What I don’t like: The defense. The Wild have three defensemen with over 5 years’ experience and three guys with less than five between them. There are going to be some growing pains on defense, and Backstrom better be ready.
Endgame guy: Koivu. He’s posted better than 40 assists in each of the last three seasons, and with better passing options than he’s ever had (he and Gaborik never played 60 games in the same season) good things are on the horizon.
Prediction: Scoring will be up for the Wild, but they’ll give up just a few too many to make the postseason.


11.   Dallas Stars

What I like: The passing ability. Yeah, Brad Richards moved to greener pastures in New York, but even with his nearly 50 assists gone, Dallas has some great playmakers. Ribero topped 50 assists last year, and Eriksson wasn’t far behind. The setups should remain plentiful in Big D.
What I don’t like: The depth. Steve Ott is playing on the second line. That’s indicative of a lot of things, none of them good. It doesn’t get much brighter the lower down you go, with Vernon Fiddler centering the corpse of Radek Dvorak on the third line. Someone’s going to need to take the pressure off the top line.
Endgame player: Brendan Morrow. The captain does it all for Dallas, he’s both their goals leader and second on the team in hits. You need this kind of hard worker when the game gets close.
Projection: There’s just not enough secondary scoring and the division proves too tough for Dallas.


12.   Calgary Flames

What I like: The old guard. I kinda feel bad for Jarome Iginla and Miikka Kiprusoff. Every year they show up, work their tails off, and see the team send another season down the tubes. Hard to believe that this was a Cup team not that long ago Hopefully management sees fit to either trade them or give them some help.
What I don’t like: The centers. Oh my. David Moss is the top guy, but he’s never topped 40 points in a season. Olli Jokinen is still here, somehow. Roman Horek draws third-line duty as a rookie, and Matt Stajan has never lived up to the hype created in Toronto.
Endgame player: Iginla. A 40-40 guy last season, he’s never played less than 70 games in any season. I think he’s a Hall of Famer and I’d take him on my team any day.
Projection: Occasional flashes of brilliance in a beige sea of mediocrity. Another long winter in Calgary.


13.   Colorado Avalanche

What I like: The young centers. Duchene has already proven himself to be a special talent, and Ryan O’Reilly showed signs of improvement. Stastny might be the best of the set, but he needs people around him to start scoring; he actually scored more goals last year than the year before, but registered 24 fewer assists.
What I don’t like: Scoring on D. The top two scoring D-men from last year, Liles and Shattenkirk, now ply their trades elsewhere. None of the defenders on the roster have recorded a 40 point season, though a few have gotten close. Given that the forwards are no great shakes, the Avs are gonna need someone on the backline to step up.
Endgame player: Varlamov. I liked Varly on the Caps, but he was always being pushed to the background. I think he’s solid in big games, not that he’s in any danger of playing in one.
Projection: Goalie and center are settled, but the lack of talent on the wings and on D doom the Avs.


14.   Edmonton Oilers

What I like: The youth. There are as many guys on this team under 21 as there are over 35. Most everyone seems to be younger than 27, and even with the 17 years of service provided by both Khabibulin and Smyth, the current roster has an average of 5 years of experience; take those guys out, and its less than 4 years. If nothing else, it will be fun watching the team mature.
What I don’t like: The goaltending. They’ve handed the reigns over to Devan Dubnyk, who hasn’t exactly set the world on fire since he came into the league. Oh well, better than the now-38-year-old Khabibulin, whose best years are WELL behind him.
Endgame player: Shaun Horcoff. The only constant on the roster left over from the last time the Oilers made the playoffs, Horcoff gives a solid effort every night. There are worse guys to have around a young team.
Prediction: Some great flashes from the developing talent, just too few and far between.


15.   Phoenix Coyotes

What I like: Shane Doan. Death, taxes, and Doan leading the team in points. Only these things are certain.
What I don’t like: The offense. I don’t know who is gonna score on this team. They’ve gotten a ton out of a bad roster in the past few years, mostly because of Bryzgalov. With their savior off to Philly, the offense is gonna get exposed early and often.
Endgame player: Keith Yandle. He’s improved upon his point total every year he’s been in the league. Though I think 50 assists is a bit much to ask, he’s one of the most dynamic players on the roster.
Prediction: Mike Smith doesn’t cut it in goal, and they can’t score. Division games will be painful to watch.

May all your hits be crits,
B

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