It's been a polarizing topic to say the least, but I wanted to take a crack at presenting the best possible case for Rick Nash in a medium that allows me the use of more than 140 characters at a time. I unabashedly believe that we should trade for Rick Nash, and I wouldn't be adverse to giving up Dubinsky, Kreider, and a 1st rounder to get it done.
Here's what I'm thinking:
#1: The Skills
This, at least, should not be in question. Of all active players who entered the league the same year or later than Nash, only five have more points: Eric Staal, Crosby, Spezza, Ovechkin, and Zetterburg. That's pretty impressive company to keep. He has scored 30 or more goals 6 out of his 9 seasons in the league (counting this one, and with a move to a team with a better offense 12 goals in 20 games isn't entirely out of the question), and has topped 40 twice. That is huge for a team that doesn't have a lot of dynamic goal scorers. He's also topped 30 assists each of the past 5 seasons, and only needs 9 more to do it again this year. Given that he hasn't been passing to a squad that is even playoff-caliber most years makes that even more impressive. Plus, he can do things like this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBQArUjP89w. There aren't too many other guys in the league who can do that, and he should pay IMMEDIATE dividends for his linemates.
Plus, Nash is only going to get better when playing with a better team. In the two years that he topped 40 goals, the team's leading assist-getters were David Vyborny and Nash himself (though one should assume he was not assisting on his own goals) respectively. Currently, the players who have had the biggest effect on Nash's game is Vinny Prospal (assisted on 6 of Nash's goals, and had Nash assist on 3 of his) and what's left of Jeff Carter (assisted by Carter 4 times, assisted to Carter 4 times). Nash has never played with anyone who is as good a playmaker as Richards or even Stepan. Given that Richards has had some level of demonstrable effect on the more talented players he plays with (he has assists on 8 of Cally's career-high 23 goals, though it seems like you couldn't get Dubinsky started even if you hooked him up to jumper cables), it is safe to assume that having Richards and Nash together would be beneficial to both.
As an added bonus, Nash provides serious shootout skills, without wasting minutes on a guy like Christiansen. Currently, Nash is tied for 6th all-time with 27 shootout goals, and scores at about a 40% clip in the skills competition. The Rangers get REALLY ugly really quickly in the shootout: only 4 guys on the current roster have taken more than 10 shots, two of them shoot less than 21% (Gabby and Cally) and one of them is Wojtek Wolski (who makes up for his skill in the shootout by underperforming impressively in all other facets of the game). Putting Nash and Richards in the shootout with Hank in goal is a recipe that has the potential to steal a ton of points during the regular season, which will only get better if MZA is brought up, ostensibly to replace Wolski.
#2: He'll fit with the team concept
I've heard a ton of talk about the team chemistry and how it will all go to hell if Nash is brought on board. I just don't see that happening. First off, Nash is a good soldier. As far as I can tell, he never criticizes management or throws his teammates under the bus. If anyone has cause to, he does, given that he has spent nine seasons toiling away with little or nothing around him. When the Jackets finally went out and picked up some offense to put around him, both Carter and Wisnewski missed significant time. Yet you never hear him complain. Second, he ASKED to come here. He knows what the power structure looks like in New York, but he wanted to come here anyway. I can't imagine he wants to come here and immediately cause a power struggle. Third, he can play with the kind of grit and jam that Torts wants. He has hovered around 100 hits the past two years, and he is well on his way to doing so again (Though he has picked it up in the last few games. Showing off for Torts, maybe?). Finally, sometimes trades have to be made. I can only imagine what Twitter would have looked like if it existed when both Gartner and Amonte got traded. Sometimes you have to make moves to improve the team; winning is a great way to improve team chemistry.
#3: Improves Roster Functionality
Right now, the Rangers legitimately have three lines: The GAS line, Richards-Cally-??, and the Boyle-Prust-?? line. Our 4th line is a loose confederation of spare parts that is rarely, if ever, used; sort of an Island of Misfit Forwards. While the team is, as usual, in fantastic shape, having three forwards average 20 minutes a night (Cally, Gabby, Richards), while the 4th line guys play 7 min a night and don't play the PK (Rupp and Bickel against CHI) is a recipe that will get you some tired forwards in the playoffs. Insofar as possible, I believe that it is helpful to have 3 lines that can score and a 4th line that is at least semi-functional.
Assuming Nash is traded for Dubinsky and Wolski is sent somewhere (ANYWHERE!!) for cap relief, our lines could look like this:
1. Gaborik-Stepan-AA (its not broke, don't fix it)
2. Nash-Richards-MZA (brought up to replace Wolski). Three fantastic playmakers on this line, all of whom have the ability to score. Find me a better 2nd line in the NHL.
3. Cally-Mitchell-Hagelin. This line is gritty and will absolutely kill you with their speed. I'd of course prefer to upgrade Mitchell, but I think Cally will get his regardless, especially if the other team has to account for Hagelin's speed. Plus, Mitchell is statistically the best faceoff guy out of all our centers, winning nearly 60% of his draws.
4. Prust-Boyle-Feds/Rupp. With Fedotenko, its a counter-punching line that has shown the ability to play well together in the past. With Rupp, its a hard-nosed checking line with the ability and willingness to drop the gloves. This is a 4th line that Torts will play, and Boyle/Prust will see time together on the PK. This gives the other three lines the chance to take a breather without sacrificing the on-ice talent.
Nash would also slot directly into our PP, and provide some much needed scoring ability. In his 9-year career, he's topped 10 PPG 4 times and handed out more than 10 PPA 7 times (including this year). Any help on the PP would be a welcome sight indeed. Also, and I had the benefit of watching last night's game before I finished the blog entry, Nash certainly seems like the type of guy you'd want to bring on as an extra attacker, doesn't he?
END AFFIRMATIVE ARGUMENT
Now, when you hear people talk about the reasons why they don't want Nash, it boils down to some combination of three arguments: Chemistry, Cap Room, and Concept. Given that I addressed the chemistry concerns above, the remainder of my time will be used to discuss the other two.
Argument #1: It's going to screw up our cap
Nash is expensive, I'm not going to dispute that. But I disagree with the argument that it will somehow prevent us from resigning "our young guys." In the immediate future, I see no problem with keeping Nash under the cap. This year, according to CapGeek, we can accept a cap hit of up to $5.8mil. Just trading Dubinsky puts that over $10mil, meaning that we can sign Nash and bring up MZA or Erixon; finding a way to get rid of Wolski's salary would give us $4mil more room to make moves.
Next year, we have $20mil of room, assuming a Dubinsky trade, leaving us 12mil left after Nash gets his. Next year's UFA's of note are: Feds, Prust, Mitchell, Avery, Biron, Woywitka, and Eminger. I don't see the need to resign any of them except Prust and maybe Biron. Mitchell is ok, but could be upgraded. What we do with our defense depends a lot on whether Sauer is healthy. We could resign Biron, or resign and bring up Chad Johnson, who is currently 13th in the AHL in GAA as a more long-term choice. The RFA's of note are: Wolski, DZ, Stralman, Bickel, and MZA. Wolski should clearly be gone, and Bickel might be rendered unnecessary. I like MZA, and if he plays well this year, he might find himself a spot. If not, the only one's we'll probably resign are DZ and Stralman. Given that the only guys we need to resign are DZ, Stralman, and Prust, and assuming a 20% raise for each of them (which is generous), it would cost us around $3.5 mil to resign all of them, leaving us 6 roster spots to fill with around $9mil, which leaves us $1.5mil to spend on each spot, basically equivalent to the contract we handed Rupp. Assuming we keep Biron for around $1mil, that leaves $8 mil for 5 roster spots. So we're not screwed next year.
The year after is where things become a bit harder to deal with. We have no UFA's of note, but we have to think about 5 RFAs: AA, Hagelin, Stepan, Sauer, and McD. Barring a breakout season from any of the others, I think that we can safely prioritize McD and Stepan, and probably resign two of the other three, or have found a replacement from the minors (i.e. Erixon, McIlrath, Thomas, Miller, Bourque, all of whom would be on the last year of their entry-level deals, and would be plenty affordable). So, we're still in good shape.
In 2014-15, all hell breaks loose. Potential UFAs: Gabby, Cally, Henrik, Boyle, Rupp, and Girardi (Redden will be one too, but something tells me he's a lower priority). Plus Erixon, McIlrath, Thomas, Miller, and Bourque will all be RFAs. This is a problem, BUT it would have been a problem even without Nash. And, under my scenario, WE HAVE RICK NASH. He's only 27, has no major injury history, and is one of the top 10 scorers to come into the league in the last decade. We will have been the best team in the league, at least on paper, for the previous three years. That's almost unheard of in the salary cap era. In summation, I don't see the potential cap problems as a reason not to trade for a superstar player in the middle of his prime.
#2 We Can't Trade Our Best Prospect Away
The final argument is that we can't trade away Chris Kreider, who (by all accounts) has been dominant in college this year; there are also some who are unwilling to trade Dubinsky, but the Kreider argument seems to be much more frequent. I understand that Krieder is really good right now, but that is no guarantee that he's going to be good in the pros. I figure that, barring watching hours upon hours of tape, the best way to look at Kreider is by draft position and by current college stats.
Draft Position: We took Kreider in the 1st round, pick 19. In previous seasons, some notable guys who were picked in that area (within 3 picks either direction) were: Sbisa, DZ, Eberle, Pacioretty, C. Stewart, Giroux, Parent, Rask, and Zajac (as well as a bunch of guys who haven't made the NHL yet). Giroux is a superstar, Eberle an All-Star, and the rest of the guys are serviceable NHL players. So Kreider could end up being Giroux, but he could also end up being Chris Stewart; I'd trade Dubinsky, Stewart, and a #1 every time for Nash.
Stats: Kreider right now has 19 goals and 16 assists for a total of 35 points. What would you say about the guy if he finished the season with 22 goals and 30 assists. You'd probably say he was destined for NHL stardom. What if I told you that was Brian Boyle's junior year stat line at BC? Kreider's physical development makes him a man among boys at the college level, but it is no guaranty of success in the pros, where everyone is bigger and faster than in college. Kreider's a lottery ticket and therefore comes with some level of risk. Its possible that we wouldn't even get him for another few years (maybe another year at BC and one with the Whale), by which point Nash would have been on the team for two years and still only be 29. Kreider still hasn't stepped onto an NHL rink and I think that getting a proven superstar more than makes up for what we might lose with Kreider.
I'm not expecting everyone to agree with me, but if you don't, let me know why in the comments. The level of discussion with other fans is one of the best things about being a Ranger fan.
May all your hits be crits,
B
Monday, February 20, 2012
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Live Blogging the All-Star Fantasy Draft
So, as a favor to my sister Cassy and all my theoretical readers, I'm going to be (as the title suggests) live-blogging the Shana-draft.
And here we go...
10:13- Announcing the captains: Daniel Alfredsson (who is incredibly undeserving. Why do we let fans decide this? The people don't even deserve the privilege of voting on the People's choice awards.) I like how the announcer referred to Lundqvist as a "Swedish Assistant." Makes him sound like a masseur, which pretty much every female hockey fan I know has dreamed about at least once. Marie is a big fan; she thinks he looks like Owen from Grey's Anatomy.
10:17- Chara up. Its fantastic seeing how absurdly tall he is compared to pretty much everyone else. Also, "which way are you leaning?" "All the ways." He might be large enough to pull that off.
10:18- Assistants Lundqvist and Lupul. Nice difference in skills, and the first Leafs Suck chant of the night begins.
Breaks brought to you by DVR, which ensures that I don't have to watch any commercials. To paraphrase Stephen Colbert- a great invention, or the greatest invention?
10:20- Most thinking Pommenville goes last, mostly because I don't think anyone wants Hartnell to get a car. I can hope...#HartnellUp
10:21- did he just say "Drizzy"? Also, did he just refer to Stamkos and Kane as vets? They're both under 25. WTF?
10:22- Generically attractive sideline reporter, but she sounds all kinds of bored. Can someone inject her with adrenaline like Uma Thurman in Pulp Fiction. Aaannd then another commercial.
10:25- Like the one trade allowed rule. This could make things interesting. Also, I know I'm not the first to say it, but Chara reminds me of Ivan Drago. I just want him to say "I will break him" or something of the sort.
10:26- And they just booed the puck flip. Who does that? But it looks like Drago is ready, and he goes for Datsyuk. Fantastic pick, given that he's ALWAYS on the list of guys that you would take to start your franchise. And it sounds like Chara's got a little crush...
10:28- Worst kept secret ever, Alfie goes for Karlsson and I don't blame him one bit. Also like the hair, those are some flowing locks. But lets hold off on the Orr comparisons, at least for a season or two.
10:30-Apparently, Karlsson is the "quickest at everything he does." Bow chicka sad face...
10:31- Chara goes for Thomas to shore up his right wing. I know I'm the millionth person to say it, but I had to, though I like that the TSN guy went right for the big issue.
10:32- Now Spezza. Lame choice, but he DOES have 50 points this year. Didn't know that.
10:33- Malkin, #1 in fantasy ranking, #5 at the ASG.
10:34- Jonathan Quick goes to Alfie's squad. Unbelievable goalkeeping tandem with Lundqvist, though an ASG shutout is unlikely.
10:35- Hossa to Chara, Giroux to Alfie. Alfie is making up for the Spezza pick big-time, Giroux might be the fastest rising star in the league.
10:36- Timmonen goes to Chara. In general, yes; in an ASG where nobody plays defense, no. Letang, Alfie's choice, is a significantly better selection. How did NEITHER Sedin go in the top 10? Do the other players watch hockey occasionally?
10:40- Last year's Hart winner is off the board to Chara. However, they aren't getting last year's player. How did the Ducks get so bad so fast? Aside from poor roster construction, that is. Stamkos finally goes to Alfie, and he brings 32 goals with him. Wow.
10:42- Carey Price comes in to back up Thomas. I like that the best stat they had for him is that this is ASG #3 for him. Shows how poorly the Habs have been doing. Lundqvist takes Brian Elliot, meaning that one team has 3 of the best 4 goalies, in terms of performance, at the game. The shutout looms.
10:44- BTW, Leafs Suck. I don't know if anyone else was aware. Lupul picks Kessel, who DOES look like Chucky. Don't lie Phil, you liked winning the car better than being picked early (or you're bizarre and delusional). Alfie chooses Weber. Chara should have locked him up earlier; if nothing else, the fastest shot competition would be locked up for his team. Chara gets Suter, who always seems like the 2nd prettiest girl at the ball compared to Weber.
10:47- Finally a Sedin. How did last year's Art Ross winner last until pick #17? The rules prevent Chara from going with Henrik, so he's stuck with Jimmy Howard. Not a bad prize, I suppose. Lundqvist goes with Girardi, who has a pretty sick tie. Also cool to know that he's the only one who made the ASG despite not being drafted. Great look at Hartnell's Jew-fro in the green room before going to commercial.
10:52- Wow, Alfie's team is significantly better going into R 11. Campbell is rapidly losing his hair, or made a terrible decision at the barbershop, but he goes to Chara. Yandle, a fantastically kept secret on an overachiving squad, goes to Alfie. I like that Chara keeps letting Lupul go up there to get booed, and that he chose Kane (who has significantly fewer goals than I expected). Michalek to Alfie; is he the forward with the fewest total points in the ASG? Seriously, fans don't deserve to vote. Phaneuf gets picked by Chara, to a chant of "Over-rated" I think we all agree.
10:57- Alfie told to pick a D-man, and ignores it in favor of Henrik Sedin. So now one team has two Sedins and two guys named Henrik, should make for good chemistry (or some confusion). Chara takes Iginla, who is quietly having a decent season (VERY quietly. The Flames are awful-sauce). Lundqvist and Alfie talking a lot about this pick, and end up with Neal. Apparently a little bit of consideration leads to good results. Who knew? Chara forced to take a D-man and goes for Wideman; Alfie in the same situation takes Edler. Again the better decision made by Alfredsson. All the Canucks and all the Sens are on the same team. I can only assume that choosing the Canucks will generally end up being a better decision
11:02- Each team gets to choose four more forwards, but we get a look at the rookies first. Wish the teams were able to pick the rookies, but it does mean Hagelin gets to be with Lundqvist and Girardi. Who would have thought there was (or would ever be) a Rafael Diaz in the NHL? Awesome.
11:06- Chara picks up Gaborik, ruining my chances of just rooting for Team Alfredsson. Tavares to Alfie; he appears to be on quite the hot streak (22 points in 14 games). Eberle to Chara. #HartnellUp to Alfredsson, where he won't get a car, but he should be on a line with Giroux (and on a team with both the Flyer rookies as well).
11:12- Chara gets Seguin, and Alfie denies Pommenville a car; Pomm is seriously bucking the trend of long hair in this game. Apparently he missed the memo. Chara's got a lot of power here, and goes for Benn. Couture, who asked what kind of car was at stake, is the last pick. His front teeth are slightly too large for his mouth. This can only be problematic for a hockey player. But he gets a Honda Crosstour, and the chance to choose a hockey program to get $20k.
So in summation, Alfredsson SHOULD dominate pretty solidly. But you never know...
May all your hits be crits,
B
And here we go...
10:13- Announcing the captains: Daniel Alfredsson (who is incredibly undeserving. Why do we let fans decide this? The people don't even deserve the privilege of voting on the People's choice awards.) I like how the announcer referred to Lundqvist as a "Swedish Assistant." Makes him sound like a masseur, which pretty much every female hockey fan I know has dreamed about at least once. Marie is a big fan; she thinks he looks like Owen from Grey's Anatomy.
10:17- Chara up. Its fantastic seeing how absurdly tall he is compared to pretty much everyone else. Also, "which way are you leaning?" "All the ways." He might be large enough to pull that off.
10:18- Assistants Lundqvist and Lupul. Nice difference in skills, and the first Leafs Suck chant of the night begins.
Breaks brought to you by DVR, which ensures that I don't have to watch any commercials. To paraphrase Stephen Colbert- a great invention, or the greatest invention?
10:20- Most thinking Pommenville goes last, mostly because I don't think anyone wants Hartnell to get a car. I can hope...#HartnellUp
10:21- did he just say "Drizzy"? Also, did he just refer to Stamkos and Kane as vets? They're both under 25. WTF?
10:22- Generically attractive sideline reporter, but she sounds all kinds of bored. Can someone inject her with adrenaline like Uma Thurman in Pulp Fiction. Aaannd then another commercial.
10:25- Like the one trade allowed rule. This could make things interesting. Also, I know I'm not the first to say it, but Chara reminds me of Ivan Drago. I just want him to say "I will break him" or something of the sort.
10:26- And they just booed the puck flip. Who does that? But it looks like Drago is ready, and he goes for Datsyuk. Fantastic pick, given that he's ALWAYS on the list of guys that you would take to start your franchise. And it sounds like Chara's got a little crush...
10:28- Worst kept secret ever, Alfie goes for Karlsson and I don't blame him one bit. Also like the hair, those are some flowing locks. But lets hold off on the Orr comparisons, at least for a season or two.
10:30-Apparently, Karlsson is the "quickest at everything he does." Bow chicka sad face...
10:31- Chara goes for Thomas to shore up his right wing. I know I'm the millionth person to say it, but I had to, though I like that the TSN guy went right for the big issue.
10:32- Now Spezza. Lame choice, but he DOES have 50 points this year. Didn't know that.
10:33- Malkin, #1 in fantasy ranking, #5 at the ASG.
10:34- Jonathan Quick goes to Alfie's squad. Unbelievable goalkeeping tandem with Lundqvist, though an ASG shutout is unlikely.
10:35- Hossa to Chara, Giroux to Alfie. Alfie is making up for the Spezza pick big-time, Giroux might be the fastest rising star in the league.
10:36- Timmonen goes to Chara. In general, yes; in an ASG where nobody plays defense, no. Letang, Alfie's choice, is a significantly better selection. How did NEITHER Sedin go in the top 10? Do the other players watch hockey occasionally?
10:40- Last year's Hart winner is off the board to Chara. However, they aren't getting last year's player. How did the Ducks get so bad so fast? Aside from poor roster construction, that is. Stamkos finally goes to Alfie, and he brings 32 goals with him. Wow.
10:42- Carey Price comes in to back up Thomas. I like that the best stat they had for him is that this is ASG #3 for him. Shows how poorly the Habs have been doing. Lundqvist takes Brian Elliot, meaning that one team has 3 of the best 4 goalies, in terms of performance, at the game. The shutout looms.
10:44- BTW, Leafs Suck. I don't know if anyone else was aware. Lupul picks Kessel, who DOES look like Chucky. Don't lie Phil, you liked winning the car better than being picked early (or you're bizarre and delusional). Alfie chooses Weber. Chara should have locked him up earlier; if nothing else, the fastest shot competition would be locked up for his team. Chara gets Suter, who always seems like the 2nd prettiest girl at the ball compared to Weber.
10:47- Finally a Sedin. How did last year's Art Ross winner last until pick #17? The rules prevent Chara from going with Henrik, so he's stuck with Jimmy Howard. Not a bad prize, I suppose. Lundqvist goes with Girardi, who has a pretty sick tie. Also cool to know that he's the only one who made the ASG despite not being drafted. Great look at Hartnell's Jew-fro in the green room before going to commercial.
10:52- Wow, Alfie's team is significantly better going into R 11. Campbell is rapidly losing his hair, or made a terrible decision at the barbershop, but he goes to Chara. Yandle, a fantastically kept secret on an overachiving squad, goes to Alfie. I like that Chara keeps letting Lupul go up there to get booed, and that he chose Kane (who has significantly fewer goals than I expected). Michalek to Alfie; is he the forward with the fewest total points in the ASG? Seriously, fans don't deserve to vote. Phaneuf gets picked by Chara, to a chant of "Over-rated" I think we all agree.
10:57- Alfie told to pick a D-man, and ignores it in favor of Henrik Sedin. So now one team has two Sedins and two guys named Henrik, should make for good chemistry (or some confusion). Chara takes Iginla, who is quietly having a decent season (VERY quietly. The Flames are awful-sauce). Lundqvist and Alfie talking a lot about this pick, and end up with Neal. Apparently a little bit of consideration leads to good results. Who knew? Chara forced to take a D-man and goes for Wideman; Alfie in the same situation takes Edler. Again the better decision made by Alfredsson. All the Canucks and all the Sens are on the same team. I can only assume that choosing the Canucks will generally end up being a better decision
11:02- Each team gets to choose four more forwards, but we get a look at the rookies first. Wish the teams were able to pick the rookies, but it does mean Hagelin gets to be with Lundqvist and Girardi. Who would have thought there was (or would ever be) a Rafael Diaz in the NHL? Awesome.
11:06- Chara picks up Gaborik, ruining my chances of just rooting for Team Alfredsson. Tavares to Alfie; he appears to be on quite the hot streak (22 points in 14 games). Eberle to Chara. #HartnellUp to Alfredsson, where he won't get a car, but he should be on a line with Giroux (and on a team with both the Flyer rookies as well).
11:12- Chara gets Seguin, and Alfie denies Pommenville a car; Pomm is seriously bucking the trend of long hair in this game. Apparently he missed the memo. Chara's got a lot of power here, and goes for Benn. Couture, who asked what kind of car was at stake, is the last pick. His front teeth are slightly too large for his mouth. This can only be problematic for a hockey player. But he gets a Honda Crosstour, and the chance to choose a hockey program to get $20k.
So in summation, Alfredsson SHOULD dominate pretty solidly. But you never know...
May all your hits be crits,
B
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